lcp
We have detected you are using Internet Explorer. To provide the best and most secure experience, please use a modern browser as we do not support Internet Explorer.

Rules for Guessing

03 January 2017 - Dr Jan Orman

As you may know, my current favourite TED Talk presenter is Swedish Professor of Global Health, Hans Rosling. In a talk I've mentioned before called 'How not to be ignorant about the world' the professor demonstrates in his inimitable way that none of us is very good at guessing the answers to questions about the world, partly because of the biases we have acquired in our life experience and from our exposure to media which is driven by readership and advertising dollars rather than facts.

The time is coming when we really have to be more careful about our sources of information – the best evidence for that being the influence that “fake news” from Facebook and other websites that seems to have had on the recent American Presidential election. (If you are interested here’s an amusing way to find out a little more about "fake news").

We know that many people with mental health problems, be they depression or anxiety, get distorted views of the world, overestimate the probability of things going wrong in their lives and underestimate their own ability to cope. Many have difficulty seeing good anywhere.

We know that many people with mental health problems, be they depression or anxiety, get distorted views of the world, overestimate the probability of things going wrong in their lives and underestimate their own ability to cope. Many have difficulty seeing good anywhere.

Prof Rosling presents us with 4 “Rules for Guessing” that use statistics as their basis rather than personal biases to answer “big” social questions.

Here are the rules:

  1. Most things improve – many good examples reveal that although lots of people, especially older people, think that the world has never been as bad as it is now, many things are actually better in the modern world. There are many fewer deaths from natural disaster now, for example, than at other times in the history of the world. If someone asks you to guess whether something is getting better or worse the most statistically likely answer is that things are getting better
  2. Most people are in the middle – on any statistical measure the hump where most people reside is in the middle not at either extreme.
  3. Social improvement always precedes accumulation of wealth – and this applies to individuals as well as countries. It pays to attend to health and education rather than focus on the economy because once the population is well educated and healthy, economic concerns tend to take care of themselves.
  4. Sharks kill few people – Fear exaggerates probability, interferes with our decision making and causes us to unnecessarily limit our behaviour.

Helping people shift their thinking to incorporate these ideas with conversation, CBT, ACT and other therapy modalities may help improve their outlook and their mental wellbeing.

Dr Jan Orman
Dr Jan Orman

Jan is Sydney GP, private psychological medicine practitioner in Sydney’s inner west and a GP educator for Black Dog Institute.

Read more
Related Tags
Related Categories

If you need help, please call

  • Lifeline- 13 11 14
  • BeyondBlue - 1300 22 4636
  • Suicide Call Back Service - 1300 659 467
GET HELP
Related News
Are you safe to work? – reframing physical and emotional factors in fitness to work

Dr. Phoebe Holdenson Kimura

Have you ever been on your way to work and asked yourself “I don’t really feel well . . . should I really be working clinically today” – and yet still turned up and completed a full day’s work?

4 mins READ
Staying in the workforce is good for my wellbeing

Tessa Moriarty

*In April 2021, approximately 619,000 older Australians (aged 65 and over) were employed in the labour force", and at 66 years, I’m proud to be included in this statistic. By Tessa Moriarty

Dealing with Dementia

Dr Jan Orman

For as long as I have been in practice (and that’s a long time!) I have done my best to avoid looking after old people.